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When
ICANN announced
the 1,409 new TLDs that 1,930
applicants are chasing on Big
Reveal Day last week, speculation
immediately began on which proposed extensions
have the best chance for success. Domain
industry powerhouse Sedo
put in their two cents today when they
released a list of what they think are the 10
most valuable new TLDs based on an in house
statistical study. The analysis was done by
economist and researcher Thies Lindenthal.
who is the Product Manager for Domain Pricing
Strategies at Sedo, as well as the creator of IDNX,
which the company describes as the first
scientific-grade domain price index.
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Here
is the Top 10 list that
Lindenthal came up with, in order of his
study's take on their overall value:
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1.
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.SHOP
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2.
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.WEB
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3.
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.SITE
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4.
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.MUSIC
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5.
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.HOTEL
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6.
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.ONE
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7.
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.BLOG
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8.
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.ECO
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9.
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.SPORT
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10.
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.LOVE
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Lindenthal
said, “Many factors make domains
unique and difficult to compare side by
side, but analyzing hundreds of
thousands of domain transactions on
Sedo’s marketplace – and applying
real estate pricing methodologies –
has
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Thies
Lindenthal
(Photo:
courtesy of epri.eu) |
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provided
significant insight into the factors
that determine domain value. New gTLDs
are actually not that new, they’re
really just traditional domain names on
steroids. We should evaluate their
fundamental strengths in a similar way
to how we traditionally price domain
names.” |
To
predict the effectiveness of each new gTLD,
Lindenthal used a formula made up of five
criteria that typically affect a domain’s
value, those being:
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Number of
applicants for the new gTLD
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Number of
Google searches for keywords or terms within
the new gTLD
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Expected
Cost-per-Click of online advertisements that
include the gTLD as a keyword
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Number of
registered .COM domains that include the
gTLD at the end of the keyword (e.g.
MyShop.com as compared with My.Shop)
-
Number of pre-registrations
according to UnitedDomains.com
Sedo's
press release about the study said, "The
first indication of which factor matters the
most comes simply from counting the number of
applications for each gTLD. If there are a lot
of investors trying to secure a particular keyword,
it’s a strong indication that the word will be
a valuable top level domain. For example,
thirteen applicants paid at least $185,000
trying to win .APP, indicating a high
valuation." (Editor's
note: Even so, .APP did not make
Sedo's Top 10 list, indicating it did not score
as well in their other four criteria).
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Image
from Bigstock |
Sedo
noted, "Exploratory research helped
derive weights for each of the
five factors by means of a regression
analysis. Technically, the number of
applicants per domain is explained by
the TLDs’ scores along the other four
dimensions. Using these weights, each
new gTLD was ranked according to its
fundamental strength. Using these
estimates and the data collected in each
category, a ranking of the intrinsic
quality of each new extension is
created.
"
For
an additional breakdown explaining how
the ranking was derived, including a Top
10 list for each of the five criteria
used, visit http://bit.ly/M0FpGy |
Since
no new gTLDs will appear on the Internet until 2013
at the earliest, it will be awhile before we
will know how well Lindenthal's predictions will
match real world results. At first glance, just
going on my own instincts, I would guess that at
least half of the names on that list will not
be among the ten most successful extensions -
but that is what makes a horse race. If
you want to play, you can always bookmark this
page, make up your own top 10 list, then come
back in 2014 or so and see how you did against
Sedo's analytical study.
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